coronavirus / Gear

[Mike Arnold]

New thread, covid-19 gun purchases

LOL.

 

[MyNameIsJeff]

I am excited to hear your response to my question above. After making an accusation like that, I would think, out of simple respect, that you would at least provide an answer. Already in this very thread, at least 4 people have made massive ASSUMPTIONS (a few of whom corrected themselves for doing so, which I greatly appreciate) regarding what I think and even things I said, which I never said. They think I am inferring things that I am not inferring. It's really easy to make assumptions and jump to conclusions when addressing topics like this in piecemeal, but I pateintly await your response...and please be specific regarding which "beliefs" of mine qualify me to be mentally ill. Thank you.

I'm not accusing you of anything. But can you really not see where I would get the idea after making a bunch of outrageous claims ('most journalists are CIA agents', paraphrasing) which are obviously false? You seem to have 100% confidence in the veracity of your theories, and you conferred the notion that this is all very obvious and in plain sight ('just look it up'). The conspiracies you propose are so grand that they are completely infeasible and could only be performed if certain groups of people cooperate who have no incentive to do so. These can be symptoms of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders like delusional disorder. As I said in my previous post, I read many conspiracy theories from many authors, and I rarely get the impression that they have a psychiatric disorder. I might think that they are wrong, that they misinterpret evidence, make a mistake in their argumentation from A to B, etc. Unfortunately, in your case it's different.

Your thinking on politics and conspiracies is also in stark contrast to the rational and evidence-based argumentation I've seen from you when it comes to technical subjects like PED use. So it's clearly not a general cognitive issue, you are quite capable of rational thinking. It's only in a certain domain that there seem to be issues, again consistent with disorders mentioned above.

 

[austrianoak]

I have seen this several times in this thread and it is 100% wrong. Inflation in simple terms is "to many dollars chasing to few goods with a high velocity of turn over". That is NOT happening. This 2 Trillion is meant to replace lost economic activity that did not happen, all in an effort to keep us above water and some inflation.

What we really have, which will get much worse, what happened in great depression is DEFLATION! To few dollars, chasing to many goods, with very slow velocity. Everybody will get $1200, who is gonna spend on anything but essentials or save it? I`ll concede weed, booze and gear are essential for some, LOL. The fed is out of ammo to fight deflation. Europe was there last year with negative interest rates, stealing from old people trying to get others spending. It never works because of the aging demographics and times of uncertainty. Oil is at 1998 prices... deflation?

100 % wrong, huh? Are you sure that you know what you are saying? Aside from the 2 trillion $ injection (which will also have an effect on inflation as interest rates down = money supply up, inflation up - to which degree is debatable) Powell has announced UNLIMITED (!!) QE and you think this will cause deflation? UNLIMITED QE, meaning UNLIMITED money „created out of thin air“ flowing into bonds will cause deflation? I think this will encourage companies to conduct more moral hazard and encourage them to spend and risk even more (not a good thing at all, don’t get me wrong) but this will stop deflationary periods as companies are spending meaning negative interest rates shouldn’t become a regular thing - yes I am aware that the 1 month and 3 month t bill are now in negative territory but I don‘t think unlimited QE will encourage more holding of money.

Oil prices are back close to 1998 prices, correct. You blame deflation for that? Ever thought about technological advancements in the last 22 years increasing economies of scale to levels that wouldn‘t have been imaginable in 1998 and nations like the KSA going in predatory pricing style and flooding the market with supplies simply because they can and they don‘t give a shit about profit margins right now? Are you sure that this is not more likely the reason, not „deflation“?

Again, my tone might maybe come across aggressive since English is not my first language but this is simply my opinion and I only want to discuss things here but it seems that I‘m 100 % wrong at times

 

[Deleted member 121863]

100 % wrong, huh? Are you sure that you know what you are saying? Aside from the 1) 2 trillion $ injection (which will also have an effect on inflation as 2) interest rates down = money supply up, inflation up - to which degree is debatable) Powell has announced UNLIMITED (!!) QE and you think this will cause deflation? UNLIMITED QE, meaning UNLIMITED money „created out of thin air 3) “flowing into bonds will cause deflation? I think this will encourage companies to conduct more moral hazard and encourage them to spend and risk even more (not a good thing at all, don’t get me wrong) but this will stop deflationary periods as companies are spending meaning negative interest rates shouldn’t become a regular thing - yes I am aware that the 1 month and 3 month t bill are now in negative territory but I don‘t think unlimited QE will encourage more holding of money.

1) A $2 trillion injection is huge but still does not replace the normal lost economic activity that should happen during this shut down, which is still on going. Most of that money will not make it to consumers to spend. Much goes to states just to support their budget, which is hurt by lost tax revenue, again replacing lost revenue/spending.
2) People don`t buy or live life based of interest rates. Again, classic keynsian economics. My parents bought a house in the 1980`s with a 14% mortgage (maldorf chime in, bet you did too). People hit a certain age, make babies, families, and buy a home, regardless of interest rates. There was also real inflation at that time, FROM baby boomers, spending lots of money, very fast (high velocity), as they formed new families. The demographics have changed. Spending by govt is much different than consumer or corp spending as well.
3) Any QE flowing into bonds is the US federal reserve propping the economy, trying to squeeze out 2% inflation, buying federal notes to support their spending, OR buying non-performing junk bonds in default to hide them on private balance sheet of private company (federal reserve). Deflation comes from the destruction of money, or shrinking money supply. Ie: destruction of capital through investment loss, negative interest rates, stock market wiping out 1 trillion dollars in a few weeks. You know half the auto loans in USA are packaged into bonds and about half of that is subprime aka junk? We did this into 2008, collateralized debt obligations (CDO`s). That was with RE. Which holds value better, RE or a car? Which payment will you make first when things get tight?

I was a financial adviser for many years through crash of 2000 and 2008 We shall see how it plays

 

[muscle96ss]

And what exactly is it that I think, that makes you think I have mental health issues? LOL. Please, explain. I am excited to hear this.

I think Jeff comes from a place of experience, knowledge, and concern and I wouldn't take it as an insult; he is truly trying to help.

 

[Deleted member 121863]

MA is not crazy. I disagree with most of his stuff but he is just "one of those guys". My brother is like that, always feeling there are powers so big and powerful controlling everything, almost like we are living in the matrix.

 

[get it in ya]

MA is not crazy. I disagree with most of his stuff but he is just "one of those guys". My brother is like that, always feeling there are powers so big and powerful controlling everything, almost like we are living in the matrix.

living in the matrix, so you mean nuts!!! Haha kidding

 

[austrianoak]

1) A $2 trillion injection is huge but still does not replace the normal lost economic activity that should happen during this shut down, which is still on going. Most of that money will not make it to consumers to spend. Much goes to states just to support their budget, which is hurt by lost tax revenue, again replacing lost revenue/spending.
2) People don`t buy or live life based of interest rates. Again, classic keynsian economics. My parents bought a house in the 1980`s with a 14% mortgage (maldorf chime in, bet you did too). People hit a certain age, make babies, families, and buy a home, regardless of interest rates. There was also real inflation at that time, FROM baby boomers, spending lots of money, very fast (high velocity), as they formed new families. The demographics have changed. Spending by govt is much different than consumer or corp spending as well.
3) Any QE flowing into bonds is the US federal reserve propping the economy, trying to squeeze out 2% inflation, buying federal notes to support their spending, OR buying non-performing junk bonds in default to hide them on private balance sheet of private company (federal reserve). Deflation comes from the destruction of money, or shrinking money supply. Ie: destruction of capital through investment loss, negative interest rates, stock market wiping out 1 trillion dollars in a few weeks. You know half the auto loans in USA are packaged into bonds and about half of that is subprime aka junk? We did this into 2008, collateralized debt obligations (CDO`s). That was with RE. Which holds value better, RE or a car? Which payment will you make first when things get tight?

I was a financial adviser for many years through crash of 2000 and 2008 We shall see how it plays

Well the 2 trillion dollar will still increase money supply and increase inflation, no? Same for the unlimited amount of QE, right? You might not think, I do - we‘ll see in a few years I guess

Okay I see your point on 2 and 3, haven‘t looked at it that way. Also an interesting point of view, like you said we shall see how it plays out.

In general tho, what is your stance on the announced unlimited QE? Loads will go into corporate bonds and again save companies that should have failed, I really don‘t like that concept - didn‘t like the whole Iron Triangle thing and the mass bailouts in 2008. Just stimulates recklessness too much imo. Would be interesting to hear your thoughts.

And being a financial advisor during the 2000 and 2008 crashes sounds really interesting, I‘m sure you have some great stories to tell

 

[Wynn]

Miami area cases by city:

COVID-19 cases broken down by city - WSVN 7News | Miami News, Weather, Sports | Fort Lauderdale

Below are the amount of positive COVID-19, coronavirus, cases by city:Update 5/4/20 11:00 a.m.Miami, Dade 7,928Hialeah, Dade 1,577Hollywood, Broward 1,291Fort Lauderdale, Broward 1,240Miami Beach, Dade<a class="excerpt-read-more"...

wsvn.com

 

[pesty4077]

In the event of 2-3 month global shutdown, food would be the #1 priority. Purchase food before anthing else, followed by stable currency, protection, etc.

I can always tell someone who is survivalist and someone who isn't. I wouldn't even need to go to the store, but if I did and I wanted something long term, it would be seeds, which no one is buying. I learn how to live off the land by 12 years old. Plenty of water and food out there and it isn't in a grocery store. If a TRUE catastrophe happen, most people would be fucked.

 

[pesty4077]

You start your post by saying you are not spreading fear and then you end it with a sentence like this? Be VERY careful with this topic, you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I have family members who survived and died WWII, you comparing this to today is ridiculous.

On a different note, injecting 2 trillions into US economy is defo not a good move and will hurt very bad in terms of inflation etc - 100 % agreed here.

Btw, everyone else got an answer to their posts so do I get an answer to my question too?

Some 75 million people died in World War II, including about 20 million military personnel and 40 million civilians and someone is comparing this to that? That is ridiculous.