Dad, anyone in the oil industry NOV stock

[mung]

I have been following your threads Dad and I know Bulldog and a few others are somehow in the oil, or related, industry and I like how you guys think. My questions lies in your opinion of National Oilwell Varco? Currently trading at $68, 52 week high if just over $80. Not finding much useful info out there in my uneducated world and wanted your take on this company. I could very well be behind on this one.

Thank you!

 

[mung]

Excellent post Dad, thank you very much. I understand your position/trading method so I realize what you stated is based on how you trade, and not invest. I was looking more at throwing money in the pot for 6-18 months to see what happens.

"...the market is a story that unfolds with time, and the farther out yuo try to predict, the greater the likleyhood yuor prediction will be wrong. Look at the track records of analysts, advisors, and economists, not to mention the government."

Great quote by the way!

 

[mung]

Dad, what do you think if this begins to approach the previous high of $82? I'll keep an eye on it either way it goes, up or down. Thank you again for your insight, it's greatly appreciated!

 

[mung]

That's some very good reading Dad, thank you! Exactly with the pre-high and pre-low examples. I always figured those big moves were institutional money. Noone has any way of knowing what or when.

"THE classic rookie move is to get sucked in to buying new highs or "breakouts."

This is spot on, I have even been told this exact thing personally by a "trader!" Go figure. I guess that trader is still a rookie! lol

I'm not keen on buying individual stocks but have been buying Procter & Gamble stock regularly for years, since 1988. They have always weathered real well. I know I am not detailed enough, nor possess the patience and time to invest in individual stocks unless I hear something. I am going to keep an eye on this one and see what happens.

Back in the Varix days a member turned us on to a stock his dad was involved with trading at just under $3 I believe, it shot up to over $13 within a few months, then drop off the charts about 2-3 months later. A good ride if you got out in time!

Thanks again Dad, you're kind to share your thoughts.

 

[mung]

Dad,

This closed today at $83.55 with a 52 week high of $89.25...any change of thought on this one? April 30th it closed at $68...

With gas prices what they are and corn over $7 a bushel...food and energy stocks are doing pretty well. Someone has to feed the China/India markets don't they...is it always going to be us and our corn?

 

[mung]

Dad, thank you for taking the time to reply. I appreciate it!

I'm not necessarily looking to buy this particular stock as of now, more trying to learn where to invest and the "how", so I am grateful for you sharing your knowledge. It was one of Motley Fools picks a while back and had been following it for a little while. Those newsletters always seem to be garbage, but since I have been following those guys, they have been picking some very good stocks...but yes, hindsight is always 20/20. Until now, I have always purchased Procter & Gamble stock and my investment guy handles the rest other than my real estate deals. I began buying gold back when the rates first started coming down at $138 an ounce. Wish I had done a lot more in gold!

My income has been steady and I am basically debt free, small mortgage left on the home is all, and am looking for places to invest for the next 20-25+ years. I do not qualify for IRA's and my maximum contribution to my SEP is $10,500 a year based on my age. I'm all ears if you have any investment suggestions! Keep on with the mutual funds?

 

[mung]

You're the best Dad! I've been learning the ropes over the past year, but I knew so little about the market prior, it will be a loong learning curve. Until then, I'll keep with what works for me until I'm comfortable with my level of knowledge to jump in.

Thanks again for your input!

 

[mung]

Scalable across, and relative to, time! Gotcha...I currently use bigcharts, is this one you recommend?

My only fear with the market is that I am aware that my shortcoming is the attention to detail it requires. I am more of a big picture guy, who lays out the plan and leaves it for someone else to execute. My biggest reason for not jumping in. In the same breathe, I have also felt it is one of my sronger traits and therefore has saved the agony of losing money because I didn't give it the attention it requires. I'll get on with it eventually!

My own saying has been this: I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but I am smart enough to realize I am not the smartest guy in the world.

Thanks again, I enjoy your knowledge.

 

[Kane]

Good info Dad. Thanks!

I'm not a trader by any means but this year I decided that since I have more time, I'd be more active regarding my retirement portfolio. One thing I've found out is that the days of investing and holding are no more. That's a sure fire way to lose money. In order to make profits you need to know what you're investing in and keep stay involved.

I've been looking at National Oilwell Varco ( NOV ) for a while. I think it is important to understand that there is a shortage of a lot of things as it relates to offshore drilling. This space has been under invested for years, and now it's catch-up time. This plays right into the hands of deep water drillers such as NOV. I hear all the time how there is a real shortage of deep water technology and drilling platforms, and that experienced, technical people are also hard to find. NOV will benefit from the higher prices as well, as it has the dominant share in the deep water drilling market. Earnings and revenue are very conservative, and the valuation is attractive. If you follow the analysts, most of them are usually late when recommending a stock imo, most have it rated at a moderate to strong buy. I'll buy it if it pulls back to $82-$83.

 

[Kane]

Kane,

I couldn't agree more with your first paragraph here! Believe me, you are way ahead of most people in understanding that buy-and-hold is over. Actually, it never worked all that well at any time, but the world of finance has been so dominated by fundamental analysis and efficient market hypothesis that everyone seemed to just take for granted that this was the way to do things.

As to all the big-picture analysis about oil drilling, you may well be right. The rub comes in that you have to make a bet on an unknowable future. This is ok, IF you're willing to let the market tell you if you're right, and if yuo have planned, in advance, what you'll do if your bet goes wrong.

Again, just my humble opinion...

I couldn't agree with you more Dad. For many years I too was one of the masses who didn't stay active with what was going on with their money and lost because I had it in a traditional IRA, spreed across several Van Kampen funds, with high fees, that weren't actively managed but, were highly touted by a "financial advisor" who was recommended to me.

The global demand for oil isn't going to go away anytime soon. You're right in that we never know the future. There's risks involved but that's where diversification comes in. I would never put all my eggs in one basket. That's a sure fire way to end up broke. Just look at all the people that lost everything with Enron. Losses can be minimized with having a diversified portfolio.

I'm by no means a professional. I still have a lot to learn. But before I decide to invest in a stock, I do my homework. I listen to the company conference calls, read the balance sheets, read anything and everything related to it, etc. If people would do this, but we know most don't, they should have a good idea when it's time to sell. I spend an hour a week, per position, doing my homework.

 

[Kane]

Yuo're ahead of the game, my friend! Most people research their next TV purchase better than their stock or retirement purchases!

Sad but very true...

NOV was up 8.36% today closing at over $91.

 

[mung]

Sad but very true...

NOV was up 8.36% today closing at over $91.

Shoulda bought at $68...just part of my learning curve!

You guys looking at any Brazilian food companies?

Drug companies?

 

[Kane]

Shoulda bought at $68...just part of my learning curve!

You guys looking at any Brazilian food companies?

Drug companies?

You and me both..

If I would look into any Brazilian companies, it would be ones in basic materials such as oil ( PBR ) or steel ( SID or GGB ).

I like Abbott Laboratories (ABT) it has a vast array of products, above- average growth rate and valuation. The recent news about JNJ's competitive psoriasis drug (Ustekinumab) not meeting safety standards is a big plus for Humira and for ABT, as it limits the competitive threat from a new entrant into the space. Approval of its drug-eluting stent, Xience, should come any day now, and it's shares are expected to rally on the news. ABT's other business remains strong in nutrition, vascular and diagnostics.

 

[Tyrone]

SO...

Dad, Kane....Who should I give my $$$ to?? I can't follow all of this yet, so who should I consult/pay?!? Great thread btw!

 

[Sassy]

Yes, I've been reading this post too.

I couldn't agree more with your first paragraph here! Believe me, you are way ahead of most people in understanding that buy-and-hold is over. Actually, it never worked all that well at any time, but the world of finance has been so dominated by fundamental analysis and efficient market hypothesis that everyone seemed to just take for granted that this was the way to do things.

I've been feeling the same way lately... so as a small investor who doesn't have the knowledge, the time or resources to keep up with individual stocks, it seems like mutual funds would be a better option. Then I feel so vulnerable to having all my money with one company. Am I just paranoid? Then if you invest in several different mutual fund company's different funds, it seems like you overlap stocks. Just gets so damn complicated.

Btw... it seems to me that investing in oil companies right now while it's so high wouldn't be a good thing. You were better off investing when it was lower; however, oil is such a limited resource that it seems like it can only keep getting more valuable. Is this the better logic?

My own saying has been this: I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but I am smart enough to realize I am not the smartest guy in the world.

Kane very good saying... I feel the same way.

The way I look at Motley Fools and other financial newsletters is that by time their publications his the news-stands that it's old new and that information is some what worthless. They talk about so-and-so stock being a good buy well by time it hits the stands the great buy is already over. Thankfully we can get more update information on companies via the internet, so we don't have to wait anymore.

 

[Kane]

Dad, Kane....Who should I give my $$$ to?? I can't follow all of this yet, so who should I consult/pay?!? Great thread btw!

If you don't have the time or, like most people, the desire or inclination to manage your own money, I would suggest you find yourself an actively managed mutual fund. Vanguard and Fidelity have some good ones imo. Do some research and once you select the fund(s), I would open an online account with someone like E-Trade, TDAmeritrade, etc.

With the way the market has been, you're not going to find many, if any, that positive earnings ytd. The main thing is to find a fund ( or two ) that are losing less than the others. Everyone can make money when the market is good and they're going to lose when it's bad. A good fund will keep your losses to a minimum.

You still need to keep an eye on your investment even though it's in a mutual fund. Take at least an hour or two every month to make sure it's performing as it should.
For years, I never checked to see how my IRA was performing. I wish I did.

 

[Kane]

I've been feeling the same way lately... so as a small investor who doesn't have the knowledge, the time or resources to keep up with individual stocks, it seems like mutual funds would be a better option. Then I feel so vulnerable to having all my money with one company. Am I just paranoid? Then if you invest in several different mutual fund company's different funds, it seems like you overlap stocks. Just gets so damn complicated.

Btw... it seems to me that investing in oil companies right now while it's so high wouldn't be a good thing. You were better off investing when it was lower; however, oil is such a limited resource that it seems like it can only keep getting more valuable. Is this the better logic?



Kane very good saying... I feel the same way.

The way I look at Motley Fools and other financial newsletters is that by time their publications his the news-stands that it's old new and that information is some what worthless. They talk about so-and-so stock being a good buy well by time it hits the stands the great buy is already over. Thankfully we can get more update information on companies via the internet, so we don't have to wait anymore.

You have the same problem that most people do. They don't have the time. If you prefer mutual funds, you can invest in different ones that won't overlap. Large, Mid and small cap funds of value, growth or blend. Then there's int'l and bond funds. There's so many options that are available now.

Your right in thinking that it would have been better to invest in oil company stocks when the price was lower. But it is a limited resource that's being used not only in the US but worldwide. We're many years away from having an alternative energy source so I don't think we'll see lower oil prices any time soon. Doesn't matter how much more oil the Saudi's pump out of the ground. There's not enough refineries in the world to process their oil and keep up with the demand.

You're right those newsletter Sassy. The same holds true for most of the Broker recommendations. You get the info too late. There's no such thing as a "hot stock tip". You're better off investing in solid companies with good fundamentals and management who's stock prices may be down temporarily because of the economy, etc.

 

[Sassy]

You have the same problem that most people do. They don't have the time. If you prefer mutual funds, you can invest in different ones that won't overlap. Large, Mid and small cap funds of value, growth or blend. Then there's int'l and bond funds. There's so many options that are available now.

This good to hear... mean I'm on the right track. Now if I can just unload two houses, and stop the financial bleeding from car repairs, IRS and other unexpected expenses. I might be ok.