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residential real estate-as an investment?

cavdude

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would be interested in anyones opinion regarding the pro's/con's in holding 'residential' real estate as an investment?

rode the real estate gravy train bubble in the Clinton years (not a political endorsement) then felt the harsh reality when that bubble burst during the 2006 (+ or - a few yrs) time frame...lol.

some pockets of residential RE were basically 'uneffected'-while most devaluated by 40 to 60% :eek: .

your opinions?


cavdude
 
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Personally I am not a fan of residential. Look into co-op purchases of highrises/abandoned warehouses in major metropolitan areas or singular purchases if you can get ahold of properties like that.

Residential has too many variables in my personal views, some older established neighborhoods are great but in the end your returns will be vastly limited vs. corporate type purchases.
 
thks PMC for the info--i was thinking along the lines of an investment in which i would have max control--in the past what scared me off commercial RE-was buying into a partnership or consolidating your monies with other investors (partnerships can be like being married...lol)?

what is your opinion of investing in the gold market?


thks
cavdude
 
Partnerships can be a terrible thing, they can also be an amazing thing...

My opinion on Gold is so/so... In my opinion we are about to come out of this recession relatively soon, Gold right now has over valued itself and is another bubble waiting to pop once other things pick up steam. It may stay steady though. I don't think we will see another huge influx though in its residual value until the next collapse and fear mongering starts.

The upcoming election will have alot to do with it, as well as a year or two post election to see what happens with GDP and unemployment rates for basic things.
 
PMC-your assesment of the Gold Market sounds very factual-i mean now that you mention it-it appears the big monies have already been made in Gold.

mortgage money brokers began moving investment monies from residentual to commercial RE about 2005-2006 time frame which also validates your assesment of residentual Vs commercial RE investments.

if there is a turn around in economy-the rules of investment will undoubtably be rewritten once again?

whats a boy to do???

i think i'll sit the next few years out while maintaining rediness in anticipation-as you said-for a turn around in post election years.


thks PMC-for helping to sort this all out
cavdude
 
Get the book

Unconventional Success by David Swensen

In a year or two I would guesstimate the private sector will sky rocket again. Now is a good time to pick up some various investments at still roughly bottomed out pricing.

The trick is anticipating the next bubble essentially, I actually just started reading yesterday on various projects that have obtained massive government grants. Usually the small tech firms that get 50+ mill will have a cool product coming out. Just an anticipation type thing waiting for them to go public essentially.

Take a look at the book though, great plans for various diversified portfolios. Its the model the firm I use utilizes.
 
Another thing... Defense industry... Defense budget is about to get a MAJOR slash... Thus defense firm stocks are going to tank if they don't get this resolved.

Once they bottom out pick them back up.
 
PMC--haven't been able to access the forum for ~4days-so late with this reply-think i have the problem straightened out now-on my end?

anyway-I'll chk Barnes/Noble Monday for the book you recommended--sounds like a good read--"non conventional" fits my lifes philosophy-so i think i can relate...lol.

I'm kind of leaning towards the thought that maybe a significant percentage to the financial success formula is simply; living in an area where the local economy is booming/virtually untouched by downturns ie; Silicon Valley (Cali.)etc?

thoughts?


cavdude
 
Don't think local, think global bud.

Alot of emerging markets coming out of Asia. Our safest returns are US based firms, our most impressive gains come out of Asia and occasionally the Middle East still.

Asia, especially the Chinese economy right now is going to take over the world.
 
investment opportunities?

PMC-would you be referring to a customized 'wall street' portfolio for taping into the global market?

do you think the communist politics of 'china' might limit their capitalistic economic growth?



thks,
cavdude
 
PMC-would you be referring to a customized 'wall street' portfolio for taping into the global market?

do you think the communist politics of 'china' might limit their capitalistic economic growth?



thks,
cavdude



Growth potential in China is completely limitless, the one thing you cannot stop in this world... Well three... Growth, Greed, Money... The party has very little to do with anything, there government is fallible just like ours. The "type" of government these days means very little.

China

Not necessarily, research different firms and see which are heavier in global expansion vs. stagnant US growth.
 
residential RE-china's millionares etc.

very astute observation-PMC-i mean about the types of govts having little to do with economic growth.

your link to the Bloomberg Report on China's millionares etc-was an eye opener.

coming from the position of having been born and raised on a midwestern farm
where land ownership defined who you were and who you would ever be-makes it hard to adjust to today's world economy and the uncertainty of residential RE ownership.

i mean oftimes its more cost effective to live in a nice apt complex w/swim pool-jacuzzi, workout room and computer/media rooms-than to live in a single family dwelling w/property taxes-utilities-maint/upkeep costs and depending on where one lives-the ever presant spectre of property devaluation?
 
very astute observation-PMC-i mean about the types of govts having little to do with economic growth.

your link to the Bloomberg Report on China's millionares etc-was an eye opener.

coming from the position of having been born and raised on a midwestern farm
where land ownership defined who you were and who you would ever be-makes it hard to adjust to today's world economy and the uncertainty of residential RE ownership.

i mean oftimes its more cost effective to live in a nice apt complex w/swim pool-jacuzzi, workout room and computer/media rooms-than to live in a single family dwelling w/property taxes-utilities-maint/upkeep costs and depending on where one lives-the ever presant spectre of property devaluation?


As far as cost effective it really depends... Still pay utilities when you rent. I don't want to post personal details but PM me if you want rent/mortgage payment assesments.

No matter what in the end it is smarter to purchase as you have the liquid equity there in the end, cheaper sometimes... that depends.

There are only a handful of reasons to rent

1) Cannot afford a house
2) Vacation property
3) Move frequently
4) The minimal return isn't worth your time

Theres a few others but off the top of my head, IE uncertainty of the area etc.
 
Indeed-PMC-as you said-home ownership dose have ready access to equity-as in seconds-refi's etc--if one has a mortgage the principal portion of that payment is similiar to building up a saxings account unless of course the property is in a downward slide of devaluation?

apt Vs homowner regarding utilities--i was kind of thinking along the lines that wtr/garbage are free to renter's (in this local) and if one-as a home owner-were to maintain a swim pool coupled with (speculative) incresed utilities for a larger square foot dwelling such as a home and then adding in the property taxes of home ownership--one may have an improved quality of life in apt living (older guys-me-tend to seek out an improved quality of life...lol).

of course the apt rent is a throw away unless one can deduct the rent as a home business expense or offset it in some manner? but in general-as you implied-one would be throwing away ~12k/yr plus some apt insurance monies in return for a nice 2bd apt w/swim pool/other amenities etc?

PMC-one of the primary things that concerns me in these times-is that LE protection at the neighborhood street level has evaporated as municipalities (Not blaming the officers as they are also frustrated by this) are laying off officers in record numbers which in turn results in many neighborhoods middleclass-uppermiddleclass-upperclass and all those-in between-turning in more opportunities for auto thefts-home invasions and or raucus playgrounds for rowdy teens/thier friends-their cars-motorcycles and other play toys etc.

i mean a combat vet can't even do what comes most natural to him by wading in on/facing up to perpetrators--knowing that he will be singled out by LE-if for no other reason than LE's fear for their own safety (which is understandable)-not to mention the leeches/scammers who are more than willing to open a civil case against the homeowner for abusive behavior to their angelic teen/drug dealers/users...lol.


i don't know what got into me with this looong post PMC-
frustration i guess-as i perpetually try to distance myself from primal instincts...lol. (some statistics out there-indicate that the in 1975-75% of all returning US Vietnam combat vets-were incarcerated in the USA.

best to you
cavdude
 
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Indeed-PMC-as you said-home ownership dose have ready access to equity-as in seconds-refi's etc--if one has a mortgage the principal portion of that payment is similiar to building up a saxings account unless of course the property is in a downward slide of devaluation?

apt Vs homowner regarding utilities--i was kind of thinking along the lines that wtr/garbage are free to renter's (in this local) and if one-as a home owner-were to maintain a swim pool coupled with (speculative) incresed utilities for a larger square foot dwelling such as a home and then adding in the property taxes of home ownership--one may have an improved quality of life in apt living (older guys-me-tend to seek out an improved quality of life...lol).

of course the apt rent is a throw away unless one can deduct the rent as a home business expense or offset it in some manner? but in general-as you implied-one would be throwing away ~12k/yr plus some apt insurance monies in return for a nice 2bd apt w/swim pool/other amenities etc?

PMC-one of the primary things that concerns me in these times-is that LE protection at the neighborhood street level has evaporated as municipalities (Not blaming the officers as they are also frustrated by this) are laying off officers in record numbers which in turn results in many neighborhoods middleclass-uppermiddleclass-upperclass and all those-in between-turning in more opportunities for auto thefts-home invasions and or raucus playgrounds for rowdy teens/thier friends-their cars-motorcycles and other play toys etc.

i mean a combat vet can't even do what comes most natural to him by wading in on/facing up to perpetrators--knowing that he will be singled out by LE-if for no other reason than LE's fear for their own safety (which is understandable)-not to mention the leeches/scammers who are more than willing to open a civil case against the homeowner for abusive behavior to their angelic teen/drug dealers/users...lol.


i don't know what got into me with this looong post PMC-
frustration i guess-as i perpetually try to distance myself from primal instincts...lol. (some statistics out there-indicate that the in 1975-75% of all returning US Vietnam combat vets-were incarcerated in the USA.

best to you
cavdude


As far as second refis etc, its a terrible way to come up with liquid capitol. Well I guess thats depending on circumstances. There are several banks out there doing 10-100,000MM $ loans with 100,000 collateral at 1.8-2.2%... Plop that in an Australian or Turkish CD at 6-11%...

Refinancing can be a decent option assuming you have prime credit, I see some options here and there at under 4%.

I think dealuation of properties is coming to an end, the DOW is at a little over 13,000 today, was a tad over 14K if I remember right before the collapse. We are ALMOST there! Inching along slowly but this next two years will be critical towards re-growth of another complete collapse in my opinion.

Water/garbage definately not free where I am at, I've had several different properties its been anywhere from 25$ for just me in an apartment to $200 a month (townhome complex with a large outdoor garden thing that was watered non stop + pool). Also in regards to larger square footage, this is speculative. It just depends on what you want. If you want a basic apartment sure the square footage will be smaller... But if you want something large 10,000 sq foot lofts are always available. AC bills on those are NOT cheap haha.

Also in regards to 12K, it really depends on where you live in the country... amentieis/sq footage you want... Spending 100-200K a year on rent isn't unheard of in some areas.

Deducting rent is a risky thing, I recently signed a lease on a property in LA (last week actually! woohoo moving soon!)... Its zoned as a live/work property. Deducting rent is a sure way to get audited. Now lets say you are an artist and use 75% of your 2,000 sq foot studio for a gallery/painting then the tax man will absolutely be ok with it when he sees that... but if you make a few phone calls here and there/have a normal office at the place and get audited... be prepared to get into trouble. Thats common place.



In regard to LE there are actually a ton of studies that show having a heavier police presence actually does NOT deter crime believe it or not! Believe me I was shocked too when I saw these. Community policing has very little to do with actual crime rates. If the opportunity is present people will take it regardless of police presence.
 
PMC-i have to say-you're thought processes are profound-to say the least and its refresding to get a new and multi dimensional twist on life in the modern world.

by the way-welcome to Cali--Huntington Beach-a favorite spot of mine-rented a condo there over summer vacation. Also enjoy the entertainment on the other end of Beach Blvd/Street which terminates at Hunt-Beach. "Midevel Knights" (on Beach Blvd/Street) was awesome if you get a chance-a complete/authentic reinactment of midevel knights in full regalia/horses etc-jousting in an arena-sword fighting and a decent story line--all included in the ~2hr dinner show of half a chicken (to add authenticity-no eating utensels-of course) red wine and alot of yelling to cheer on your section's Knight...lol.

PMC-your reference to community crime rates being worse or uneffected given a larger LE force-blows my mind! i mean 'on face' one would think that with a larger force there would be quicker response times regarding citizen complaints to dispatch? the problems many neighborhoods are facing (from my observations and personal experience over ~14months) is that there is No LE response to citizen neighborhood complaints unless a serious felony has been commited?

i've spoken with Beat officers who say its a matter of 'tri-age' in that they seperate the level of a felony from the misdemeanors and respond in kind?

i mention the LE presence in residential RE only because of the impact it may or may not have on crime stats for particular neighborhoods which i think should be a major consideration when shopping for a single family dwelling type residence that will be a good place to live as well as preserve ones principal investment which also has the potential to appreciate?

hope you like Cali/LA area--if you get a chance there's a resturant in Hollywood which i enjoy when i get up to that area, called 'Crustatauns'.

cavdude
 
PMC-i have to say-you're thought processes are profound-to say the least and its refresding to get a new and multi dimensional twist on life in the modern world.

by the way-welcome to Cali--Huntington Beach-a favorite spot of mine-rented a condo there over summer vacation. Also enjoy the entertainment on the other end of Beach Blvd/Street which terminates at Hunt-Beach. "Midevel Knights" (on Beach Blvd/Street) was awesome if you get a chance-a complete/authentic reinactment of midevel knights in full regalia/horses etc-jousting in an arena-sword fighting and a decent story line--all included in the ~2hr dinner show of half a chicken (to add authenticity-no eating utensels-of course) red wine and alot of yelling to cheer on your section's Knight...lol.

PMC-your reference to community crime rates being worse or uneffected given a larger LE force-blows my mind! i mean 'on face' one would think that with a larger force there would be quicker response times regarding citizen complaints to dispatch? the problems many neighborhoods are facing (from my observations and personal experience over ~14months) is that there is No LE response to citizen neighborhood complaints unless a serious felony has been commited?

i've spoken with Beat officers who say its a matter of 'tri-age' in that they seperate the level of a felony from the misdemeanors and respond in kind?

i mention the LE presence in residential RE only because of the impact it may or may not have on crime stats for particular neighborhoods which i think should be a major consideration when shopping for a single family dwelling type residence that will be a good place to live as well as preserve ones principal investment which also has the potential to appreciate?

hope you like Cali/LA area--if you get a chance there's a resturant in Hollywood which i enjoy when i get up to that area, called 'Crustatauns'.

cavdude

Sorry its been a few days, still in the process of moving in... Two trips to costco today haha. (sometimes I seriously hate driving small cars).

I've actually been to midevil times before! We have one out in Dallas!

Let me clarify the LE thing, RESPONSE time does change. The more resources you have to allocate the faster you can make priority calls. However police PRESENCE (the more assets visible to the community) does not statistically deter crime at all.

In regards to complaint time and what complaints are heard personally I don't know of any stats on that other than that violent crimes always come first. From experience socio-economic differences though in various neighborhoods play a huge role. You can make a call for a black person just walking down the street in my parents neighborhood and you will have a cop at your house in 2 minutes... In downtown Dallas though we had a massive physical altercation, several drunk people wound up getting severely hurt. Took nearly 20 minutes for an officer to show up on scene.

The triage example is actually a pretty good one.
 
i know what you mean about "moving" last time i moved i gave all the furniture away and bought new, just so i wouldn't have to move it...lol.

No doubt about it tho, in and around LA is where its all happening but that could be true of many of the larger cities? I have an Airborne Ranger aquaintence/friend (Vietnam era) who lives in a single family dwelling in the town of Huntington Beach--he says no crime in the neighborhoods where he lives.

I'd like to move down there but the economics of it would have to make sense before that would happen.

regarding police response and in particular "what" they respond to, it that a matter of dept management or pretty much the same triage type allocation of resources?


good to hear back from you, i thought you were probably tied up with moving etc, how's that all going by the way?

cavdude
 
Its all going great man, rest of my furniture comes tomorrow! So excited for that. I have a big empty area on the first floor so going to turn it into a man cave thing haha. Went to an auction last night at a museum over here and picked up some replica life size dinosaur skulls... Trex and Triceratops haha.

First day back in the gym today, there were less than 5 women there and a ton of gay guys... Gotta find a new stomping ground lol.

It really gets down to a basic allocation of resources, priority issues obviously take priority over minor call outs. Also keeping those of us happy that actually pay taxes haha... Individuals in higher socio economic areas will always take president.

Obviously fewer officers will be required to patrol a higher end beat, and they rarely have serious calls... thus a much faster response time for call outs even for petty items.

In worse off areas, there is a statistical correlation between low income and more violent crimes... There will be more serious call outs and often not enough officers for that particular beat... Thus slower response times.

Mid socio economic areas fall right in the middle.

i know what you mean about "moving" last time i moved i gave all the furniture away and bought new, just so i wouldn't have to move it...lol.

No doubt about it tho, in and around LA is where its all happening but that could be true of many of the larger cities? I have an Airborne Ranger aquaintence/friend (Vietnam era) who lives in a single family dwelling in the town of Huntington Beach--he says no crime in the neighborhoods where he lives.

I'd like to move down there but the economics of it would have to make sense before that would happen.

regarding police response and in particular "what" they respond to, it that a matter of dept management or pretty much the same triage type allocation of resources?


good to hear back from you, i thought you were probably tied up with moving etc, how's that all going by the way?

cavdude
 
PMC-sounds like you're acclimatizing fine in your new digs--dinosaures one of my favorite kind of creatures--skulls very cool...lol.

you must have a nice place (2-levels etc)--do you have a view? The beaches are nice places to workout if you like jogging?

i hope you'll enjoy the overall experience there-weather is great, very inducive to working out it will be interesting to see how you like it/adapt?

interesting about the allocation of LE resources--been working closely w/PD in recent months and particularly in last 6days, on neighborhood problems and have had some heated exchanges w/PD regarding response times etc.

some of residents asked me to be block captain and put together a neighborhood watch prgm, which i did. got more accomplished in a few wks than neighborhood has in 14months but all for a cost--made some enemies at PD because i don't take no for an answer but i now believe that's Not how to work with PD--two sides to every story, i guess...lol.

Always good to hear from you,
cavdude
 

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