Anyone else going SHORT on BP??

[taz]

not a bad idea to get in now and ride it down a few points. i would bet it drops into the 20's again next week. I am short at just under 38 so im already making some decent money on it.

 

[Steve123]

not a bad idea to get in now and ride it down a few points. i would bet it drops into the 20's again next week. I am short at just under 38 so im already making some decent money on it.

The thing is, the amount that they've lost is a small dent in the company. If they figure a way to cap that well, that stock has lots of room to move North. I don't think they will cap the well and I think their problems have just begun. It may not be a bad move. Maybe buy a couple of call options out a month or so? That would cover you if it ticks up.

 

[summersgold]

It has already fallen over 50%. When a stock falls this much, the institutional investors see a good buying opportunity. This can cause the stock to rise because institutional investors are responsible for a lot of the price movement in a stock. The best time to have shorted that stock was when it was 60.

 

[Steve123]

It has already fallen over 50%. When a stock falls this much, the institutional investors see a good buying opportunity. This can cause the stock to rise because institutional investors are responsible for a lot of the price movement in a stock. The best time to have shorted that stock was when it was 60.

This is 100% true but based on "expectations". We are now in a climate of anti-''too big to fail''. Nobody is buying that anymore. If BP cannot stop that leak, I see their demise on the horizon. Institutions are not betting on the viability of the company; they are betting on what others think the viability of the company is.

 

[taz]

It has already fallen over 50%. When a stock falls this much, the institutional investors see a good buying opportunity. This can cause the stock to rise because institutional investors are responsible for a lot of the price movement in a stock. The best time to have shorted that stock was when it was 60.

this is much of the traditional thinking. and i also lived and invested with these same type of philosphies. but i saw an opportunity and regardless of it wasnt at 60 i still shorted (and am still making quite a nice chunk of coin) when it was at 38. in less than 30 days I have made over $3000 on that short. so im alright with that return.

secondly, they are going to be wacked for $280mil per day for each day that this leak isnt plugged. i know they have a ton of free cash and access to billions, but it doesnt take long to burn through cash when you are spending a billion a week+ on fines.

i also dont believe they are going to get this fixed and turned around anytime soon. im not sure i have an expectation of too deep a fall but i do think i can get another $4-5 drop on it. It may not be in the tens of thousands for profit but ill still take it.

if they do happen to get this thing turned around and i start to see the institutionals grabbing this thing heavy ill cover my short and go long double the amount.

a few years ago I went back and forth every month buying and then shorting a REIT stock. It would travel up to 53 then drop down over a couple of weeks down to 41-43 or so. So everytime it hit the 50's I would short the hell out of it. then buy back heavier when i covered. I made a fortune that year doing that. Well, maybe not a FORTUNE. but i did make over $20k doing that.