I would say that's a pretty good idea of where you will land. One thing that bothers me is who cares who else is in your class? Worry about bringing your best and hitting where you look the best. You can't control who will show up at your show. The last 2 shows I have done national level guys have showed up. The first one beat me bad the second barely edged me out. This means progress was being made and let me know where I stand. I competitive top 5 is worth more then a win against no one in my book.