Like I mentioned before I picked Cain to win but I like JDS too (from videos he seems very humble and likeable guy) so if JDS wins I am happy for him equally... but
on paper Cain
should win. As all of you know this is MMA and anything could happen. Plus their only loss in the UFC is with each other which makes this even more exciting.
Various polls have this a pretty much 50/50 split. As you can see the Betting Odds in my previous post its almost tied with Cain having a slight edge.
Below is the picks of all the editors for a MMA website and its a tie as well.
UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos staff picks and predictions - Bloody Elbow
Tim Burke: I picked Cain in the first one and JDS in the second, so I might as well go three for three in my wrong picks. I think Anton did an excellent job of explaining it below, so go read that. You back? Cool. Okay, that about covers it. I'm done!
Junior dos Santos by TKO, round 4
Anton Tabuena: The first two fights were basically decided by one punch. JDS landed a bomb that KO'd Cain on the first fight, and although he wasn't able to secure a finish it was the huge punch that dropped JDS and turned the tide. A rocked and tired JDS has proven he can still get up from those takedowns, so with this likely to have a lot of time on the feet, who has a better chance of repeating with that big shot? I think that's going to be Dos Santos. Also, can I just say that after taking that beating on the second fight, Dos Santos even seemed to be the fresher fighter during the latter rounds. Hopefully on this third bout, Rogan and Goldie would already have let go of that damn ‘Cardio Cain' narrative.
Junior Dos Santos by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: I don't get people who think that Cain and JDS fighting 75 times is a bad thing. Heavyweight is not producing any serious contenders right now (or at least anyone who is a threat to Cain or JDS), and the next best heavyweight is planning to drop to 205 AND is Cain's teammate. So that leaves Werdum, Barnett, and maybe Travis Browne as the next best 3, and all of them would be comprehensively pulverized by Cain or JDS (who already smashed Werdum). Anyway, I've picked JDS the first two times, but the 2nd fight was a real eye opener. I think as much as JDS gets lauded for his boxing, Cain is tighter with his punches and has the superior footwork. JDS has the ability to KO Cain with one punch, but Cain just has more paths to victory, and I think he takes the rubber match by beating JDS at his own game.
Cain Velasquez by TKO, round 3.
T.P. Grant: This is a great rivalry for the Heavyweight division as these two are clearly the best of their generation and both could be considered All-Time Greats by the time their careers are over. This makes the third time I've picked Cain heading into their fights, I've always seen a trilogy coming and Cain taking two of three. JDS certainly has the tools to win, he is only ever one punch away from getting the belt, but Cain's wrestling is just too big a factor for him not to be the smart pick. These two might end up fighting five times and unless something drastically changes I'll pick Cain as the favorite each time.
Cain Velasquez by Decision.
Zane Simon: I'd love to pick JDS here, I think his standup is actually evolving. Hell, he KO'd Mark Hunt with a wheel kick. But the fight is about more than just who strikes better. I think that cain has the ability to continually take JDS out of his element and even if JDS can get back up over and over again it changes the way he fights. Cain's path to victory is clearer because he can follow almost the exact same game plan as the last time out and expect similar results. JDS has to have made significant changes to his defense, grappling and footwork and I just don't think that's likely.
Cain Velasquez by Decision.
Fraser Coffeen: I got to tell you - I have no idea. I picked JDS KO last time, then felt stupid. This time, I'm tempted to pick Cain, but is it just because he won last time? I guess I fall back on my general rule for rematches - go with the smarter fighter. Here, I think that's Cain. So, Cain right? Yeah, but what about his chin? Good point - so JDS, right? Aaargh - so difficult!!
Cain Velasquez by TKO round 3
David Castillo: I'm still in the camp of ‘this is too close to call'. While people talk about the first fight being fluky, I don't see how the second fight with JDS getting destroyed on the feet is any less fluky. I don't think Cain is the better striker, for example, just like I don't think Cain is chinny. One of the reasons why I favor JDS is because even with his brain lying in a pool of blood near the judges, he still managed a modest comeback. If JDS is relatively cogent, and hasn't been rocked, I kind of like JDS' chances in general. I favor him to eek out the win in fact. This is just one of those matchups IMO where these guys could fight 100 times, and each fight would be a coin toss.
Junior dos Santos by Decision.
Connor Ruebusch: I don't even know, man. I'm just so hyped about this matchup. Who doesn't love a heavyweight rubber match? This is a classic trilogy in the making, and there's likely at least another two fights in the not-too-distant future. I actually believe that JDS was unduly affected by outside factors in the last fight, and even in his dilapidated condition he was still able to land some punishing shots in the later rounds. I don't think Cain can repeat his success, because JDS has the advantage of knowing exactly what holes need shoring up. Hopefully he's taking Cain seriously now, and has a gameplan to stifle the wrestling and punish the faulty boxing of the current champion.
Junior Dos Santos by KO, round 3.
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