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coronavirus / Gear

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On Managing Virophobia
Abdu Sharkawy, MD, University of Toronto,
I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others.

I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too.

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, open mindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives.

But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education.
We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts. Our children will thank us for it.


He posted that on March 5th... on March 18th he stated --------

"Please stay CURRENT with your information on Covid-19. Advice from 2 or 3 weeks ago may not serve you today. Specifically, the time for debates about social distancing and modified strategies for containment is PAST. I unequivocally urge everyone to take this seriously.

Stay at home please! Don't gather with friends under any circumstances. Don't go to malls or restaurants (the few that remain open)

Take care of your family. Protect and support your elderly relatives and neighbors.

Turn this crisis into a blessing and opportunity to reflect on what is most important in life. Time with your family. Our ability to make a difference for others.

#altruismnotnihilism #cleanhands #openminds #openhearts
#bepreparednotscared"

-------------


This is an evolving situation where everything we were initially told was wrong. At first it wasn't transmitted between people. At first it couldn't be airborne. His posts after the one I linked above are equally ominous about the serious nature and how everyone needs to practice distancing.
 
This whole this is gay
 
Ben Carson was just live on Justice Jeanine and when asked when he expects the number of cases in the US to peak he said most likely months; hopefully only a couple. That is more realistic than this 15 day thing we are doing. He is probably going to get all kinds of shit for being honest, but if anybody thinks we are going to be able to resume a normal life anytime soon, that is not realistic.
 
I'm so sick and tired of hearing, take this as a blessing, enjoy family time, enjoy the time off, blah, blah. You know what one of the leading causes of divorce is, MONEY! You think these families that can't work and are going broke are just sitting at home cuddling and enjoying their time making babies, baking cookies, and taking naps? No, they are freaking the fuck out because that's exactly what they did when they had jobs and still struggled to get by.

Me, I secretly want a shutdown because my wife makes plenty, can work from home and we have a nice backup fund, not exactly how I want to spend it but the idea of getting up, working out(i have a home gym, how I been training since I started training), eating breakfast, napping, eating, more napping, sounds pretty amazing but I work a physical job, its how I manage to eat how I want and not get fat. At the same time, my boss/owner is not getting any new leads, customers are backing out of projects, he and his wife also own a vet clinic, nobody is bringing their pets in, he's worried about paying me as he doesn't want to lose me, keeping their vet clinic open, and all life's other problems, all while having three kids he needs to feed himself. Its rougher times for him than it is me, its reasons like that why I don't support what is going on right now. Fear and panic has been created and it is going to greatly affect peoples lives.
 
3 KC area counties are going under quarantine and the “stay at home” shiz is underway. Most things will be closing.
 
According to the CDC less then 1% of deaths are from people under 54 years old. Zero under 19. Unfortunately no update of how many had health conditions.

"This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years."


ICU admissions are similar in trend but % is of course much higher in each group. 12% of those admitted to ICU were between the ages of 20 and 44. That might be higher than some of the young guys here thought.

"Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table)."
 
Ben Carson was just live on Justice Jeanine and when asked when he expects the number of cases in the US to peak he said most likely months; hopefully only a couple. That is more realistic than this 15 day thing we are doing. He is probably going to get all kinds of shit for being honest, but if anybody thinks we are going to be able to resume a normal life anytime soon, that is not realistic.
Trump was saying that he thought things would be better by July or August. That sounds about right to me. Bad thing is that then we have another winter coming and it will get bad again most probably, especially once all the restrictions are released and everyone goes back to life as usual. At least some people will be immune then though. I really hope that it doesn't mutate so that the vaccine they are testing doesn't work well.

Another thing that worries me, some doctors are saying that there very well might be two different viruses that we are dealing with, not just one.
 
This article says there is evidence that the coronavirus we are all dealing with now very well might be a combination of two viruses, so not so much 2 are on the loose now but that the two combined.


"On February 7, 2020, we learned that a virus even closer to SARS-CoV-2 had been discovered in pangolin. With 99 percent of genomic concordance reported, this suggested a more likely reservoir than bats. However, a recent study under review shows that the genome of the coronavirus isolated from the Malaysian pangolin (Manis javanica) is less similar to SARS-Cov-2, with only 90 percent of genomic concordance. This would indicate that the virus isolated in the pangolin is not responsible for the COVID-19 epidemic currently raging."
"However, the coronavirus isolated from pangolin is similar at 99 percent in a specific region of the S protein, which corresponds to the 74 amino acids involved in the ACE (Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2) receptor binding domain—the one that allows the virus to enter human cells to infect them. By contrast, the virus RaTG13 isolated from bat R. affinis is highly divergent in this specific region (only 77 percent of similarity). This means that the coronavirus isolated from pangolin is capable of entering human cells whereas the one isolated from bat R. affinis is not.
In addition, these genomic comparisons suggest that the SARS-Cov-2 virus is the result of a recombination between two different viruses, one close to RaTG13 and the other closer to the pangolin virus. In other words, it is a chimera between two pre-existing viruses.
This recombination mechanism had already been described in coronaviruses, in particular to explain the origin of SARS-CoV. It is important to know that recombination results in a new virus potentially capable of infecting a new host species. For recombination to occur, the two divergent viruses must have infected the same organism simultaneously.
Two questions remain unanswered: in which organism did this recombination occur? A bat, a pangolin or another species? And above all, under what conditions did this recombination take place?"

I think this is why some are claiming that it was synthesized in a bio lab in Wuhan China. We don't have any proof now, so that cant be said to be true as of now. Sounds like most scientists think it is just natural evolution.
 
He makes a good point about keeping ICU beds open for other cases like auto accident victims. Coronavirus patients are just one type of patient and the hospital is trying to handle everything all at the same time. I used to wait tables and I think you could compare this to fast food. One day my father and I were at Mcdonalds getting a quick lunch and right before we got in line an entire school bus of grade school kids came in for lunch. This inflow was much more than the restaurant was able to handle all at once. Thank goodness a teacher told us to go in front of them. We got our meal and then the kids started ordering. There must have been at least 60 students. Meanwhile other patrons came in and wanted to order but had to wait on the kids. This is what happens when too many Coronavirus patients come into a healthcare system, it is overwhelmed. In the Mcdonald's example we finished eating just as the kids finally finished eating and the other adults that had come in had not even been waited on.
 
Where is that happening? Surprised I've not heard that. So some places have stopped all gun sales? That is really bad. I know around here bullets have sold out. Glad I stocked up.

I dont think its officially happened yet but Illinois and new Orleans are two places that I know of that have bill lined up that bans gun sales
 
How is this for mild? In Italy the virus killed 793 people in the last day. Just 24 hours and 793 dead. The rate is increasing each day. That doesnt happen with the seasonal flu. No idea when that death rate will stop going up or go down. For now the curve is rising fast.

Maldorf you have said from almost the beginning this is NOT THE FUCKING FLU and you were/are correct. I am a respiratory care practitioner and people calling this the flu are simply wrong. Not sure if this has been posted yet:


Buckle up folks barring a miracle cure this is going to get very bad.
 
situation has resolved in china


There are some indications things aren't as rosey in china as they are portraying. They kicked out several (US included) journalists, have been making scholars change previously made statements. evidence the return to normal production being claimed is bullshit and they are leaving the lights on and machines running to show power usage. Google it... the info is out there on numerous english language news site. You can't get much these days from US news sites. We are focused on our own situation 24/7... I miss the days when I could see the highlights from the days basketball games and chill the fuck out.
 
Hey guys, got tested and thank baby Jesus everything is good, was worried there for a second...
Bro you have HIV 👍
 
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