Gotgame, how long do you think the US will have to live with threat of shutdown? Masks and social distance are not a big deal, I like standing in line at Walmart now and not having people breathing down my neck haha!, but living with the constant threat of government deciding some people are not allowed to earn a living is truly a pain. You seem pretty in the know and that is really the big fear I and most people I know have. Everyone i know is at least respectful of the virus, it’s real and worse than the flu obviously, but for most I know the fear of losing job and not being able to support family is greater than the fear of virus. Not downplaying risk of the sickness but most people I know and myself are much more in fear of shutdown than getting sick. Maybe we are stupid, but still would like to get your opinion. Maldorff you too, I think we are in the same general region.
Thanks in advance guys.
I completely understand and if i was at risk of losing my job that would keep me up at night and not the virus itself.
Honestly...i have no clue. I was completely wrong back at the end of march. I had this discussion with two of my gym buddies last week in march. I said to them this partial lockdown thing isnt gonna work and this 15 days slow spread nonsense isnt gonna work. They will realize it..do a full lockdown like most other nations while using the defense production act to make n95 masks for the population and with the full lockdown it will give the healthcare system some breathing room to get ready. I told my friends i thought it would suck for a month but america is gonna get this taken care of and we will be back in the gym by end of april and it will be managable. Yea good call gotgame...good call..lol
But if i had to make a prediction ill play along as im waiting for my breakfast to digest before i do my backyard workout.
I expect the american population is getting smarter and realizing there is increased community spread based on the percent positive testing result and people seeing it for themselves in areas like fl, texas, ca an arizona. My parents live in FL and there friends were thinking it was a bunch of bs back in april...now they are pissed at there governor and know its legit. So as people start realizing its real they will start doing what they can to protect themselves..but heres the issue...
The USA blew there chance. We spent trillions of dollar and the american people put there lives on hold in march and april and early may...we could do that then and i support giving people money who we told your not allowed to work ( but not more then they were already making..different dicussion). but that was a one shot deal to get it under control and do what as needed and we blew it so now people mentally and financially cant do that again and it puts us in a bad position, and quite frankly embarrasing when a large portion of the world was able to get it under control ( no its not just increased testing...)
So what i think will happen... cases will get slight worse and stabilize by mid august.. They may even trend down by Sept and then you will have people being like seee we told you so...not a big deal! we beat the 2nd wave! vaccines almost here! go back to your lives. but thats sept. By october you will start to see the beginning of a real second wave as well as start of flu season which is going to stress our healthcare systems. We will see hotpots shut down again. You will see some schools reopen ( some certainly could to a degree with precautions) but all you will need is a few confirmed cases and some children to either die ( yes some have) or have serious complications from the virus or spread to family members and it will run like wildfire through the news and parents will panic. I think we will at some point see confirmed cases from places like disney world and then that will be forced to shut.
Then theres the issue of vaccines. I fully believe that the future for vaccine production will be using mrna technology like moderna is using but i want long term safety data on that technology. I personally feel that its being pushed too quickly for political reasons and skipping steps for phase 3. If a classic dna vaccine for covid is brough to market id certainly get it the first day. Im not sure if id get mrna tech vaccine until i see long term data, i just feel its not going through the process that i trust.
Vaccine "success" will probably be announced in the fall but we wont have real phase 3 data and we are still learning about how long immunity may or may not last ( if at all...).
So thats the long way of saying i think we will be dealing with this until maybe march 2021 will rolling shutdowns. I purchased an elliptical yesterday as i was pretty confident i wont have any sort of gym stability until then. Little by little im building more home gym equipment. Im making another home depot run this afternoon